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Market Report – 1.22.2012
January 22, 2012 By Leave a Comment
The past several weeks have been a slow grind higher for the S&P 500, and it seems that we have been stuck in a “hurry up and wait” market. The extended move higher is likely drawing in more and more long positions for the SPX, which is a case of traders being afraid of missing a move higher. When traders begin to pile in a certain trading position, typically the market will shake those traders out. Therefore, current levels are very dangerous for long positions as price action remains at a critical inflection point. We have two different wave counts for the SPX, and it seems both would suggest a move lower soon. A move lower would be in the form of the start of a larger move lower that would last several months, or it would be a smaller retracement setting up a continued move higher for the next several months.
The wave counts for several markets are not very clean, which likely means that we remain in corrective patterns. These scenarios are difficult for traders, and typically cause traders to lose trading capital due to a lack of a tradable trend. It makes a lot of sense to remain patient
Market Report – 1.18.2012
January 18, 2012 By Leave a Comment
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The SPX may have another push higher to complete many waves as indicated in the chart. We may be looking at a very important top. The rally seems to be on borrowed time, especially as we evaluated the entire market landscape.
SPX 1Hour Candle chart
The TNX gave back all of its early gains yesterday, which is a signal of a continued risk off tone for the market. With the “safe haven” buying of treasuries and the S&P 500 running out of gas yesterday, it seems that a major risk off move could come at any time and may be getting underway now. We see the TNX as making another move lower the 15 level at a minimum, which is what we have been forecasting for months now.
TNX 4Hour Candle chart
Copper has moved higher in corrective fashion and has hit up against some stiff resistance at 3.75. This could
Market Report – 1.11.2012
January 11, 2012 By Leave a Comment
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The SPX inched closer to our inflection point and price action appears very tentative. A break below the upward trend channel could get a very bearish move started.
SPX 4Hour Candle chart
The AUDUSD is a chart that we have been watching closely with traders and have traded. If price action finds support we could see another upside push.
AUDUSD 30min Candle chart
Gold appears ready for another drop to lower levels. We put a trade on this morning.
GC 4Hour Candle chart
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Market Report – 1.8.2011
January 8, 2012 By Leave a Comment
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The markets are at very critical inflection point. The US NFP data showed an improvement of 200,000 jobs, however equities had a difficult time rallying on the news. It makes us believe that the positive data was already baked into the markets. The data was expected to be positive, but the number was still a surprise to the upside according to projections. Is the SPX running out of steam now? There continues to be an increasing amount of bullish perspectives for equities, which likely provides us a contrarian signal to be aware of a potential top for the SPX. We continue to believe it could be a significant top for the next couple years.
SPX Daily Candle chart
Many analysts have a more bullish perspective, which is fair to say. We believe it is critical to have an inter-market perspective, therefore, we want to analyze other markets to confirm our bias. We have continued to watch the AUDUSD for quite some time
