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EURUSD – 9.30.2011

September 30, 2011 By Leave a Comment

We have an updated wave can below on the daily chart.  It appears as if we have a completed 5 waves down, especiarly as downward price action has lost its momentum.  This coincides with the SPX, which has not been able to gather enough selling pressure to break through support around 1130 and 1100 levels.  We have considered the possibility that this count may be more correct.  We don’t expect much in terms of big moves today give that this is the end of them month and quarter.  Therefore, as the chart displays below we see that the a wave correction as already been completed.  We are currently in wave b down and are expecting a short term bounce to about the 38.2% fib retracement level of 1.3814 to complete wave c.

We are expecting price action to rebound here in the very short term, but remain bearish looking to sell rallies.  The retracement higher offers an opportunity to join the trend to the downside.  We are targeting 1.2749 on the move lower, which could take several days to weeks. 


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EURUSD Daily Candle chart

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GBPUSD – 9.30.2011

September 30, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Here is a look at GBPUSD, which we have been keeping an eye on but haven’t posted a Market Report on for a while.  Our count below is tracing out very similar to the EURUSD on the daily chart, which makes sense given the proximity of the European problems.  It appears as if we have a completed 5 waves down, especiarly as downward price action has lost its momentum.  The correction from the 9.22.2011 lows appears to large given the wave structure, therefore it looks very corrective.  This coincides with the SPX, which has not been able to gather enough selling pressure to break through support around 1130 and 1100 levels.  Like the EURUSD, we don’t expect much in terms of big moves today given that this is the end of them month and quarter.  Therefore, as the chart displays below we see that the wave a correction as already been completed.  We are currently in the wave b down and are expecting a short term bounce to about the 38.2% fib retracement level of 1.5818 to complete wave c.

We are bearish longer term on the GBPUSD.  We are expecting price action to rebound here in the very short term, but remain bearish looking to sell rallies.  The retracement higher offers an opportunity to join the trend to the downside.  We are targeting 1.3711 on the next move lower, which could take several days to weeks.  We do believe that our target could be revised lower, much lower.  As price action unfolds we will evaluate our target.


View our last EURUSD Market Report here.

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GBPUSD Daily Candle chart

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Gold – 9.30.2011

September 30, 2011 By Leave a Comment

GC Daily Candle chart


Gold seems to be continuing in a consolidation pattern that traces out higher in the short term at minimum.  We don’t expect much in terms of big moves today given that this is the end of them month and quarter.  Therefore, as the chart displays below we see a correction continuing higher to about the 1730 level, which is the 50% fib retracement.

We are bullish longer term on the Gold, however, we do think that it is like that Gold goes lower with a strengthening USD and struggling equities. 

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EURUSD – 9.29.2011

September 29, 2011 By Leave a Comment

EURUSD – 9.29.2011 – 6:30am cst

The EURUSD moved lower as expected, but has since pulled back near the highs of yesterday.  The move higher has nearly invalidated our proposed wave count below on the hourly chart.  If price action moves above 1.3689 then that invalidates our count and we will have to reevaluate.  Even if the count is invalidated we will expect price action to remain below 1.3796.  On the other hand if the EURUSD begins to drop and is able to push through yesterday’s lows of 1.3519 then we can expect price action to begin to really break down.  Our confirmation of a 3rd wave move lower is when it break back through the upper trend channel.  The daily chart displays our eventual target of 1.2749, which we expect to hit in the near term.

Our bias is bearish in the short term while price action remains below 1.3935.  We expect red wave 3 to begin to the downside if it hasn’t already.  We are targeting 1.2749 on the move lower, which could take several days to weeks. 


View our last EURUSD Market Report here.

See our medium/long term Market Forecast for the EURUSD.

 

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See our Full Market Report.

EURUSD Hourly Candle chart



EURUSD Daily Candle chart

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AUDUSD – 9.29.2011

September 29, 2011 By Leave a Comment

AUDUSD – 9.29.2011 – 7:15am cst

AUDUSD seems to want to retrace higher in corrective fashion before its ready to make a move lower.  The grey oval in the hourly chart below is our target area if price action continues to correct higher.  The 1.0000 -1.0060 is the zone that would present a nice short opportunity.  The target is the 0.9556 level and the 0.9439 or 0.9290 levels in extension.  This pair should be particularly tied to equities as volatility continues in the days ahead.  As equities sell off, the AUDUSD should sell off as well.

We are expecting selling pressure to remain strong and are looking for the AUDUSD to drop below the lows in the short term.  Our longer term bias is bearish for the next several weeks with our expectation that price action should drop to below the 0.90 level.  Longer term our target is 0.8129 level.

Also just to note that the RSI has returned to neutral on the hourly chart.


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AUDUSD Hourly Candle chart



AUDUSD Daily Candle chart

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AAPL – 9.28.2011

September 28, 2011 By Leave a Comment

AAPL – 9.28.2011 – 10:00pm cst

We always have our eyes on assets across the Market looking for indicators that might help provide clues about where the market direction is going and also to possess a more wholistic perspective with a better intermarket analysis with every report we post.  Apple has been an amazing stock for the last several years, and has lead the recovery in stock indices higher.  We believe that if there is going to be a larger bearish trend that develops further in the markets that Apple will likely participate.  It is also our belief that Apple will not only participate in the downside, but it may also be one of the larger percentage loss leaders.  The reason is that since Apple has enjoyed leading most stocks in much of ride higher in equities, then maybe the opposite is true for a bearish market.  Our perspective of the move higher in equities the last couple of years was that inflationary monetary policies helped prop up revenue for stocks like Apple, especially as they enjoyed revenue in currencies outside of the weak US Dollar.  Apple really became the “hero” stock that gave investors something to be excited about in an otherwise very slow economy.  With a possible deflationary environment returning, Apple could bear the brunt of a bearish trend.  Also the fact that Steve Jobs has stepped out of his highly visible and iconic role, the stock is bound to suffer for a short term at minimum.  It is also likely that Google continues to dominate the smart phone market with Android software and Amazon may rival Apple with a new tablet to compete with the IPad.    

Could Apple be in the topping out process for a substantial move lower or at minimum a correction?  We are not suggesting that a top is in, but are merely raising the possibility that that could be what is unfolding presently.  Let’s look at the charts to see what they could be indicating.

The daily chart has been interesting the last couple days.  As equities have rallied, Apple did not make much of a move higher and didn’t participate with the short covering rally.  The stock actually looked quite indecisive.  The trend line drawn in the daily chart below offers support and will be key to suggest a larger downside move ahead if broken.  The next support that comes in is the larger three year trend line below.  The monthly chart displays more distinctively the upward trend channel since early 2009.  The monthly candle chart shows a long wick for the current weekly candle that may indicate a bearish reversal ahead.  Also it appears that price action may have found some resistance at the 161% fib extension on the move higher from back in 2002, which is approximately the $397 level.  

If a pullback is indeed in order then the 50% fib retracement of the move higher since early 2009 could be reached at about $250 on the weekly chart below.

Our bias is bearish in the short and medium terms.  Note that the RSI on the montly chart is overboughh and has been for almost an entire year.  This is a signal that the downside could be ahead.



View our medium/long term Market Forecast for the EURUSD.

US Dollar Index Market Forecast medium/long term.

 

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AAPL Daily Candle chart



AAPL Weekly Candle chart



AAPL Monthly Candle chart

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EURUSD – 9.28.2011

September 28, 2011 By Leave a Comment

EURUSD – 9.28.2011 – 6:30am cst

Price action pushed higher yesterday in corrective fashion.  If the cross drops back below the trend line connecting the highs on the hourly chart below then that will provide initial confirmation that the downtrend is ready to return.  When price action drops back into the downward trend channel we will have higher level of confirmation that a drop in red wave 3 is underway.  Notice that the wave labeling was changed from yesterday indicating that the end of wave 1 red has already completed.  Once the downward movement return it is likely to be strong as a 3rd wave.  Our bias is bearish in the short term while price action remains below 1.3935.  We expect red wave 3 to begin to the downside if it hasn’t already.  We are targeting 1.2749 on the move lower, which could take several days. 

Our bias is bearish in the short term.  Note that the RSI on the hourly chart is neutral and nearing overbought, which could be a catylist for a downside move in the short term.


View our last EURUSD Market Report here.

See our medium/long term Market Forecast for the EURUSD.

 

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EURUSD Hourly Candle chart

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AUDUSD – 9.28.2011

September 28, 2011 By Leave a Comment

AUDUSD – 9.28.2011 – 7:15am cst

AUDUSD seems to have found resistance as expected from yesterdy and has turned back down to target the 0.9556 level and 0.9439 or 0.9290 levels in extension.  This pair should be particularly tied to equities as volatility continues in the days ahead.  As equities sell off, the AUDUSD should sell off as well.

We are expecting selling pressure to remain strong and are looking for the AUDUSD to drop below the lows in the short term.  Our longer term bias is bearish for the next several weeks with our expectation that price action should drop to below the 0.90 level.

Also just to note that the RSI has returned to neutral on the hourly chart.


View our last AUDUSD Market Report here.

US Dollar Index Market Forecast medium/long term.

 

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AUDUSD Hourly Candle chart

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SPX – 09.28.11

September 28, 2011 By Leave a Comment

The SPX closed down over 24 points today which could signal the beginning of the third sub wave down within the larger 5th wave move. Although many financial outlets attributed this week’s rally to European rumors, we saw this as nothing more than a short squeeze. Traders were eager to short the ES when the SPX was at the 1020 and then the 1050 level. As The SPX broke above the 23.6% many traders were forced to cover positions pushing the S&P500 up to almost 1200. We called the possible start of the sub wave move down around the 1065 level which was a bit premature considering the short squeeze. However, we still believe that overall the call remains intact, seeing the top of the sub wave 2 now at 1195. We may see one smaller rally tomorrow, if so its highly likely larger short positions will begin. However, the downside could just continue tomorrow. As far as downside levels for the 3rd  sub wave down it’s a wide range between 1092 and 1019. See the Fibonacci extension in the second chart.

Bears be careful, its likely bulls will step in to defend the 1030 level as this is the bottom of the range that the SPX has been stuck in the last couple of months.  If this level is broken solidly it’s likely we will test 1100

See previous SPX reports

Mondays report

Sundays report

Other reports today

EUR/USD report

AUD/USD report

AAPL report

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Daily Chart

Daily Chart


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EURUSD – 9.27.2011

September 27, 2011 By Leave a Comment

EURUSD – 9.27.2011 – 7:00am cst

Price action is testing the upper end of the downward trend channel.  We are expecting these levels to be critical resistance to turn price action back to the downside soon.  The EURUSD indeed has rebounded as we have expected from 1.3361, which was based on the news of a possible EU bailout fund.  Our bias is bearish in the short term while price action remains below 1.3586.  We expect green wave 5 to complete to the downside to form red wave 1.  Our initial target is 1.3296 and 1.3228 in extension.  Then we will look for a pull back to approximately the upper trend channel line as resistance.

The downward trend channel displayed in the hourly chart below should guide price action in the next several days to weeks.  We expect the EURUSD to drop to the lower end of the larger downward trend channel which puts it at below 1.30 as the next major price objective.  The next objective will be 1.2765, which is 161.8% fib projection level. 

Our bias is bearish in the short term.  Note that the RSI on the hourly chart is neutral and signaling more downside in the short term.


View our last EURUSD Market Report here.

See our medium/long term Market Forecast for the EURUSD.

Analysis of a Five Year Comparison of the EURUSD and the S&P.

US Dollar Index Market Forecast medium/long term.

 

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See our Full Market Report.

EURUSD Hourly Candle chart

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