Given the wave counts that we have posted with the AUDUSD, EURUSD, and USDNOK today.  It appears we could see a bearish USD move in the upcoming days and weeks ahead.  The AUDUSD and EURUSD are at critical lows that appear they could be basing out for a move higher, and the USDNOK is setting up for an extended move lower.  If there is going to be a bearish USD move developing then we should also expect a move higher for the SPX coming as well.  However, if that doesn’t happen, we know that our wave count invalidation levels are not far off from current levels, which means that short USD/risk-on plays are in solid technical setup positions at current levels.

The EURUSD has tested the 1.3100 level again for a second time, and the 1.3082 level provided support, which is the 78.6% fib retracement.  It’s not all that surprising that the 1.3080 has held thus far, because the 78.6% retracement is a key level, which must continue to hold to keep this more bullish wave count alive.

EURUSD 4Hour chart

There is some interesting dynamics at hand here post-NFP data release.  The price action off the lows in both AUD and NZD are not impulsive and despite some solid NFP numbers, those two pairs cannot get going.  This should be somewhat of a concern for playing a risk-trade higher at current levels.  However, the S&Ps are trying to push higher, which is interesting.  Something else may be brewing here.

Always keep in mind that you should take post-economic data price action with a grain of salt.  Having said that, with the interesting price dynamics going on here, we must be aware that the markets could be reducing the possibility of a 3rd edition of a currency-weakening quantitative easing from the US Federal Reserve.  There is some nice upside price action in USDJPY and downside in EURUSD.  We really need to watch for additional signs that a new trading normal could be upon us:  better US data equates to a stronger USD.  There are certainly some flaws in that thesis, however, it must be considered to not be caught off-guard by the market.

Not much changes from yesterday.  We are primarily look at potential long opportunities in the AUDUSD and NZDUSD to catch the next upside move.  The markets are digesting the lower growth expectations for China and also the potential for a disorderly default by Greece.

We will post more charts throughout the day as price action warrants it.