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Market Report – 2.20.2012

February 20, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Due to the content in this Market Report, we could only make some of it available as free to non-Premium members.  Join us here for more information.

The S&P futures is retracing a bit as a result of overbought conditions.  Our expectations are for the uptrend to continue higher once this small correction is complete.  Join our premium members for more specific levels that we are targeting and more charts of our current wave count.

ES – 1Hour chart

 

The DX has likely made a significant reversal last week.  We have been forecasting a lower USD index for weeks and we continue to believe we are headed to much lower levels.

DX – 1Hour chart

 

More charts available for Premium Members below.

ES – 4Hour chart

DX – 4Hour chart

NZDUSD – 4Hour chart

USDSEK – 4Hour chart

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For more chart coverage and more in-depth research and analysis, join our premium members content.  Also receive more interaction with Market Overflow as we provide Elliott Wave analysis and technical research to help your trading/investing become more profitable.  If you have any questions contact Ben, Founder and Chief Analyst, at marketoverflow@gmail.com, or contact us here.  We do have a free 7-day Premium content trial to try out research and analysis service with trade recommendations.  If your are interested in the  **Free Premium Trial** contact us  here.

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Market Overflow – Trading Analysis and Research

February 20, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Market Overflow provides trading analysis and research for those that seek to optimize their market return. Our strategies and guidance help to anticipate market movements to obtain a better performance with timely updates and trade alerts.  We use several types of analysis to develop trade strategies, but Elliott Wave is our preferred method to best gain an edge on the market.  For more information about what we offer, find out here.

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Weekend Update

February 19, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Hello everyone, we hope you are having a nice weekend.  We wanted to post an update on a couple new features that we have talked about for some time, and now will be a more regular service for all Premium members.  If you’re not already a Premium member, please join us here.  The new features are the following:

1) – We have added several new web pages that are linked to our “Market Forecasts” list located on the right hand side of our home page under “Information”.  We have an “**Updated**” tag in red to make sure you notice it the next time you’re on that page.  We will try to do that on anything that we want to bring your attention to.  These Market Forecasts are subject to change over-time as they become more fine-tuned when more information is revealed.  We will post an “as of” date for each of those posts so you know how current they are.  Keep in mind that those forecasts will primarily focus on the longer term picture.  Our posts that we make in the “Premium” section will continue to be the most current information, which will include the new posts to those “Market Forecasts” web pages.  We will always let you know when they have been updated.  We just posted a new Market Forecast for GBPUSD here.

2) – We have also added a new Investment Portfolio page.  It is located on the right hand side of our home page under “Information”.  We have a “**New**” tag in red next to it.  A new Investment Portfolio service is now provided to Premium Members as an added value.  We currently have one position that we have announced as a new holding in our Investment Portfolio.  That position was initiated and announced on 1.26.2012, which that post can be viewed here.  At this time we have only announced 10% of our Investment Portfolio, therefore, we have not announced the remaining 90%, which we plan on doing as we change our portfolio.  We don’t want to announce the rest of our portfolio until we change those positions.  We are off to a great start already with a total return of 6.44% so far in less than two months.

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DX

February 13, 2012 By Leave a Comment

The USD Index is suggesting that lower levels are ahead.  It is interesting to note that the wave (2) retracement was very weak and had trouble pushing higher at all, which likely means that there is some real underlying weakness here.

DX 1Hour chart

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Market Report – Weekend Edition

February 12, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Due to the content in this Market Report, we could only make some of it available as free to non-Premium members.  Join us here for more information.

Reviewing the charts from last week and it is noticeable that the EURUSD clearly outperformed most USD based currency pairs and the SPX/ES markets as well.  However, on Thursday, the currency pairs turned lower.  This is especially seen in risk-related pairs of the AUDUSD and NZDUSD.  When the risk-related currency pairs turned lower, they were ahead of the ES which is very typical.  The currency markets always tend to lead the equity markets.  The AUDUSD and NZDUSD remained heavy, while the ES rebounded a bit, as the markets closed last Friday which suggests that we may see a continuation of the risk-off tone to begin trading this week.

ES(gray), AUDUSD(green), GBPUSD(red), NZDUSD(blue), EURUSD(pink) – 5min Candle chart

 

It seems that traders may be anticipating a double top for the S&P 500 at the 1370 given the indecisive price action action at the current levels of 1340-1355.  Of course the S&Ps are due for a correction, but there is a lot bearish sentiment in the market still.  Since price action has exceeded the 78.6% retracement level of 1307, which price action slid right through, we should expect it to continue higher.  The next target to the upside should be the 127.2% fib extension, which is the typical target once the 78.6% retracement fails.  So the path of least resistance looks higher, and we may have some more reaction at the double top area of 1370, but those typically do not hold, nor do triple tops.  So over the next several months we are looking higher for the S&P 500 index.  To summarize we have had a three wave move higher off of the 2009 low primarily due to a violation of that move higher on the move lower from the 2011 high to the low. Therefore, we are expecting higher levels in the form of a fifth wave due to price action getting above the 78.6% fib level.

SPX – Daily Candle chart

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For more chart coverage and more in-depth research and analysis, join our premium members content.  Also receive more interaction with Market Overflow as we provide Elliott Wave analysis and technical research to help your trading/investing become more profitable.  If you have any questions contact Ben, Founder and Chief Analyst, at marketoverflow@gmail.com, or contact us here.  We do have a free 7-day Premium content trial to try out research and analysis service with trade recommendations.  If your are interested in the  **Free Premium Trial** contact us  here.

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Market Report – Weekend Edition – 2.5.2012

February 5, 2012 By Leave a Comment

The better than expected US NFP data that was released last Friday morning, and we receive a nice bullish move higher for the markets as we expected.  The path of least resistance has been higher and we have no reason to abandon that continued bias.  It does seem though that currency traders may cut back their expectations of a round 3 of a USD-weakening quantitative easing effort.  We are wondering if this will change the landscape for the USD against the EUR, perhaps in the short-term, however, USD shorts may experience a short squeeze.  Therefore, as we continue to stay out-of-the-way of a difficult EURUSD to trade, we must try to understand its impact on the markets.

Our initial target has been hit for the SPX at the 1344-1345 area.  Price action is in overbought territory on the 1hour chart, but we could see price action push higher in the short-term to our extended target of the 1356 price level.  It seems prudent to take partial profits at minimum with a potential wave 4 pullback that could unfold in the short-term.  Our bias remains bullish for the next several weeks.

SPX 1Hour chart

 

The USD index continues to appear bearish especially if price action can break through below the 78.75-79.15 area, which has produced a bit of congestion for the short-term.  Although the SPX/DX inverse correlation has been challenged a bit this year, the two have tightened up that relationship as of late.

DX 1Hour chart

 

Similar to the DX chart above, but inversely related, price action could breakout to the upside if this wave count is correct.  The 1.3144-1.3216 price area is the congestion zone for the short-term.  A break above could really get price action moving to the upside.  We continue to have a neutral conviction on this pair as there remains to be a lot of cross currents affecting price action.

EURUSD Daily chart

 

As of late, we have been tracking the EURGBP, and believe there may be a nice opportunity in the short-term for lower price levels ahead.

EURGBP 1Hour chart

 

Crude oil is critical for longer term SPX bulls.  If we have seen the completion of a wave 2, we should expect much higher price levels in the weeks ahead, which should support the SPX for a continued move higher.

CL 4Hour chart

 

Our forex darling, the AUDUSD, continues to move higher as we have forecasted weeks ago.  We continue to like the price action that we see here, and will likely continue to trade it in the days and weeks ahead.

AUDUSD 30min chart

 

Join our premium members as we continue to stick with what has been working to trade the EURNZD, AUDUSD, and EURGBP pairs, which have a more clear wave count providing us an edge on the markets.  Our current trade has been working very well and we are positioned nicely for further gains this week.

 

For more chart coverage and more in-depth research and analysis, join our premium members content.  Also receive more interaction with Market Overflow as we provide Elliott Wave analysis and technical research to help your trading become more profitable.  If you have any questions contact Ben, Founder and Chief Analyst, at marketoverflow@gmail.com, or contact us here.  Try our free 7-day Premium content trial to experience our research and analysis service with trade recommendations.  If you’re interested in the  **Free Premium Trial** contact us  here.

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Market Report – 2.3.2012

February 3, 2012 By Leave a Comment

The targets on a move higher is 1332 and 1339 in extension.  We should achieve those levels in a short amount of time if the data comes in as expected or better.

ES 1Hour chart

 

The EURUSD is setting the stage for another move higher, which is contrary to a lot of the headlines in the news these days.  Price action tells us everything.

EURUSD 1Hour chart

 

Crude oil has been moving lower, but price action appears corrective.  Our bias is for higher prices in the weeks ahead targeting 113.78 and 120.85.

CL 4Hour chart

 

For more chart coverage and more in-depth research and analysis, join our premium members content.  Also receive more interaction with Market Overflow as we provide Elliott Wave analysis and technical research to help your trading become more profitable.  If you have any questions contact Ben, Founder and Chief Analyst, at marketoverflow@gmail.com, or contact us here.  Try our free 7-day Premium content trial to experience our research and analysis service with trade recommendations.  If your are interested in the  **Free Premium Trial** contact us  here.

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Market Report – Update – 1.29.2012

January 29, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Another interesting week ahead of us after the US Fed decided to maintain its very easy monetary policy of low-interest rates and potentially more quantitative easing.  These actions are likely going to hurt the buck and support equities for the next several weeks and months ahead.  The USD index is likely going to tell the story for the markets as we expect weakness to return to being the theme.  As we look at the different markets in this report, it seems that another push in risk-on sentiment is likely to continue to unfold.

The DX seems to be in a wave (3) move lower which should continue to see strong selling pressure to keep the index heavy this week.  Many analysts are looking for a rebound in price action, but we simply do not see that anytime soon for any significant rally.

DX 1Hour Candle chart

 

The S&P 500 appears that it may have another small wave lower to find support at about 1307 for minor wave 4 in the near term, but our focus is for price action to continue higher this week.

SPX 1Hour Candle chart

 

Crude oil hasn’t done much in recent weeks and has pretty much gone sideways since mid-November.  We expect price action to break out to the upside soon with a shorter term target of $115, which should be boosted by a lower USD.

CL 4Hour Candle chart

 

Our favorite risk-on currency continues to be the AUDUSD, so if we are bullish on equities then we continue to like price action here to continue higher.  Our wave count confirms our bias.

AUDUSD 1Hour Candle chart

 

Another interesting currency play is the EURNZD.  Instead of trading the EURUSD, we like a short EURNZD position with our expectation that the Euro will continue to have its troubles, but it would be far better to be short the Euro against the stronger New Zealand Dollar, which is setting up for a big move lower.

EURNZD 1Hour Candle chart

 

For more chart coverage and more in-depth research and analysis, join our premium members content.  Also receive more interaction with Market Overflow as we provide Elliott Wave analysis and technical research to help your trading become more profitable.  If you have any questions contact Ben, Founder and Chief Analyst, at marketoverflow@gmail.com, or contact us here.  Try our free 7-day Premium content trial to experience our research and analysis service with trade recommendations.  If your are interested in the  **Free Premium Trial** contact us  here.

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Market Report – 1.29.2012

January 29, 2012 By Leave a Comment

A common method of analysis that we use here at Market Overflow is an inter-market analysis to help us understand how equities are performing relative to the currencies.  Our chart allows us to determine if the risk-on trade is being confirmed by the currencies, which seems to be clearly seen below.  The 30 day 1hour chart shows us that the S&P500 futures are up 7.58%, and the strongest USD related currencies are the NZDUSD and AUDUSD, which is why we have been trading the AUDUSD a lot recently with premium members.  The NZDUSD is up by about 8.55% and the AUDUSD is up by about 6.76% for the last 30 days.  We may begin to trade NZDUSD once we feel more confident in our wave count, but clearly we want to be long AUDUSD or the NZDUSD if we continue to believe that equities will continue to perform well.

 

ES(gray), AUDUSD(green), GBPUSD(red), NZDUSD(blue), EURUSD(pink) – 1hour line chart

 

For more chart coverage and more in-depth research and analysis, join our premium members content.  Also receive more interaction with Market Overflow as we provide Elliott Wave analysis and technical research to help your trading become more profitable.  If you have any questions contact Ben, Founder and Chief Analyst, at marketoverflow@gmail.com, or contact us here.  Try our free 7-day Premium content trial to experience our research and analysis service with trade recommendations.  If your are interested in the  **Free Premium Trial** contact us  here.

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Market Report – 1.22.2012

January 22, 2012 By Leave a Comment

The past several weeks have been a slow grind higher for the S&P 500, and it seems that we have been stuck in a “hurry up and wait” market.  The extended move higher is likely drawing in more and more long positions for the SPX, which is a case of traders being afraid of missing a move higher.  When traders begin to pile in a certain trading position, typically the market will shake those traders out.  Therefore, current levels are very dangerous for long positions as price action remains at a critical inflection point.  We have two different wave counts for the SPX, and it seems both would suggest a move lower soon.  A move lower would be in the form of the start of a larger move lower that would last several months, or it would be a smaller retracement setting up a continued move higher for the next several months.

The wave counts for several markets are not very clean, which likely means that we remain in corrective patterns.  These scenarios are difficult for traders, and typically cause traders to lose trading capital due to a lack of a tradable trend.  It makes a lot of sense to remain patient to wait for the higher probability trades.  Trading is a game of “where are my probabilities the best or better”.  Remember of course that the tendency for the markets is go higher, and on average the market goes higher.  Also it is important to note that Chinese equities may have based out in the short-term at minimum for a move higher, which could support the S&P 500 and Crude Oil.  The USD index continues to be a mess, and our conviction is to not buy the DX.  We actually prefer selling the DX at current levels.  Now to the charts.

Our current primary wave count for the SPX remains to be this first daily chart below.  The abc correction higher has pushed above the critical 1306 level with a very important trend line resistance just above current levels.  Currently the trend line comes in at about 1322-1324.  The trend line extends lower all the way back from the 10.11.2007 high.  A break above would be critical for the bulls and really hurt the bears.  It is important to recognize that this move higher is becoming overextended and overbought, therefore it is due for a pullback at minimum.  However, if this wave count is correct, once price action puts in a top we should see sharp price action lower very verry soon.  If we don’t get the sharp price action lower very soon, then we must shift to our alternate wave count.

SPX Daily Candle chart

 

Here is a look at our alternate wave count for the SPX.  It is a more bullish interpretation that expects more upside in the near term.  The evidence across the markets is pushing us more and more to this interpretation, especially if we don’t get a sell-off very soon.

SPX Daily Candle chart

 

The TNX has failed to break below 18, which likely points to higher levels in the near term.  We expect that price action may create an abcde triangle for wave iv over the next couple months.

TNX Daily Candle chart

 

Copper continues to look very choppy and may have higher levels ahead to complete the corrective wave (b).

HG Daily Candle chart

 

Crude oil has continued its holding pattern, but we believe a wave 3 break out to the upside is very near.  This expectation is part of what has us leaning more and more towards a bullish SPX for the months ahead.  Price action should find good support at the 98.37 and 97.35 levels, where we believe it’s a buy.

CL Daily Candle chart

 

The AUDUSD continues to be one of our favored wave counts that we have continued to track.  We expect price action to complete wave (1) soon, and then retrace lower for wave (2).  This wave count is very bullish for the AUDUSD, which likely means that the SPX is headed higher.  We will be looking to enter a long position soon, if price action plays accordingly.

AUDUSD 4Hour Candle chart

 

Apple is pulling back for a buy opportunity soon, which is another bullish indicator for the markets.

AAPL 4Hour Candle chart

 

For more chart coverage and more in-depth research and analysis, join our premium members content.  Also receive more interaction with Market Overflow as we provide Elliott Wave analysis and technical research to help your trading become more profitable.  If you have any questions contact Ben, Founder and Chief Analyst, at marketoverflow@gmail.com, or contact us here.  Try our free 7-day Premium content trial to experience our research and analysis service with trade recommendations.  If your are interested in the  **Free Premium Trial** contact us  here.

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