Market Overflow

CADJPY

Market Overflow — Thu, 17 May 2012 11:52:48 +0000

The chart below has a lot to say about the bearishness of this economy, and we are beginning to shift our bias to the bearish side in terms of the markets and specifically the CADJPY.

It appears that we could likely have a leading diagonal formation within the trend channel below for wave 1. We should expect price action to drop lower towards the trend channel, which would put prices at the 69-67 area in the next several weeks to a few months away.

CADJPY 4Hour

For more chart coverage and more in-depth research and analysis, join our Premium members content. Also receive more interaction with Market Overflow as we provide Elliott Wave analysis and technical research to help your trading/investing become more profitable. If you have any questions contact Ben, Founder and Chief Analyst, at marketoverflow@gmail.com, or contact us here. A free 14-day Premium content trial is available to try out our research and analysis service with trade recommendations. If you’re interested in the **Free Premium Trial** contact us here.

Market Overflow – Trading Analysis and Research

Market Overflow — Thu, 17 May 2012 10:48:18 +0000

Market Overflow provides trading analysis and research for those that seek to optimize their market return. Our strategies and guidance help to anticipate market movements to obtain a better performance with timely updates and trade alerts. We use several types of analysis to develop trade strategies, but Elliott Wave is our preferred method to best gain an edge on the market. For more information about what we offer, find out here.

NG

Market Overflow — Mon, 14 May 2012 20:32:53 +0000

Last week we posted a Natural Gas chart that highlighted a potential key reversal level of 2.531, and price action has reversed exactly at that level. We charted Andrew’s pitchfork which allowed us to expect a reversal for price action and should continue to expect more downside ahead targeting the 1.238 level and 0.962 in extension for a long-term bottom.

NG Daily

TNX

Market Overflow — Mon, 14 May 2012 15:11:09 +0000

For months we have been tracking this count for the 10yr treasury. Price action is targeting the 14.33 level over the next several weeks. The trend line support currently comes in at about 13.80-13.50.

This chart is signaling more equity weakness is ahead.

TNX Daily

DX

Market Overflow — Thu, 10 May 2012 18:53:46 +0000

The USD index is a very important indicator of where the markets are likely headed for the rest of 2012. A bullish USD will likely correlate with weaker equity and commodity prices, and a bearish USD will likely result in the opposite scenario. Price action is difficult to count as impulsive higher, but the important upward trend line has held around the 79.00 level. There was a brief breakdown through the trend line support, but it only served as a fake-out for USD bears, as price action has reversed to higher levels. It is quite possible that this indecisive price action could be as a result of being within a triangle. If that is the case then we may have a bit higher to go for wave d and then another pullback for wave e and complete the triangle x. From there we could be looking at USD strength begin in early June that could take the buck to the 86-87 area by the end of the year. Perhaps we should expect equities to selloff in the weeks ahead.

DX Daily chart

Apple

Market Overflow — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 17:05:51 +0000

The price action for Apple over the past three years has certainly been impressive to say the least, especially in 2012 alone. It seems quite evident in the chart below that we have a blow off top developing, which should be a significant warning sign of a trend change. Usually this happens when sentiment reaches an extreme and reverses. For every AAPL bear I come across there are 10 AAPL bulls that I meet. It becomes quite interesting when I’m at the gym discussing the price dynamics of AAPL and it seems that those who follow the stock anticipate the move to continue higher and higher. It seems that many almost believe that the only direction for AAPL is up. This is sentiment that should begin to be a warning sign of a potential retracement lower to say the least. When the market enters a phase of extreme bullishness the market (or stock in this case) will reverse as price action becomes exhausted and sellers emerge.

The stock reached a high of 644 on 4.10.2012, and since then price action has broken down out of the wave 5 trend channel, which is evidence of a reversal. It is interesting that there was a back test of the trend channel and price action reversed lower as there was sufficient resistance there. It now appears that the path of least resistance is lower in a corrective fashion. Our chart shows our interested fib support levels, which are 510, 428, and 361. The more likely support level to hold the upcoming retracement lower is the 361 level, which would be an area where we would become interested once again. We are not trying to call a top in AAPL or suggesting that the direction is certainly lower from here. Rather we see evidence of a possible topping pattern that could result in a swift decline for the stock. A break below the 550 level would certainly increase the likelihood of the top being in for AAPL. It seems more wise to buy an iPad at this point rather than a share of AAPL stock. The chart below has all of the details and is an example of the type of Elliott Wave analytics that we do here at Market Overflow.

If AAPL does indeed continue to move lower as we expect, then it may act as a leading indicator to drag the markets such as the S&P 500 lower as well.

AAPL Daily chart

Here is a closer look at AAPL price action for 2012.

AAPL 4Hour chart

SPX

Market Overflow — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 18:53:31 +0000

The bigger picture for the SPX shows a downside target of 1336-1340 in the short-term, which could produce a tradeable bottom for the weeks ahead. The market may eventually be targeting the 1450-1500 area before summer trading arrives.

SPX 4Hour chart

Market Report

Market Overflow — Wed, 11 Apr 2012 02:48:05 +0000

The ES has sustained its largest selloff so far in 2012 as it dropped to 1352.5 today. Price action has entered oversold territory and the last time we reached these levels a rally followed of more than 200 points. We aren’t suggesting that the same will happen again this time, but it does seem quite possible that a sustained rally could certainly unfold. In fact our Elliott Wave count expects another move higher in the weeks ahead. The ES did find some support at 1355, which coordinates with the 23.6% fib retracement level of the entire c wave rally thus far. We could see price action rebound from here, otherwise we have more support available at 1338 and then 1333.

ES 4Hour chart

A closer look at price action over the past several weeks and we can see a potential head and shoulders pattern, which has met its objective.

ES 1Hour chart

Market Report

Market Overflow — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 02:12:59 +0000

We do not have a bearish bias on the S&P 500 currently, which we have been suggesting to our Premium Members, however, we must be aware of a potential bearish move ahead as the S&P futures shows signs of a possible move lower ahead in the short-term. We can count five wave down from the high, which means we should get a three wave move higher at minimum. It is likely that the fib resistance level of 1403 will provide some resistance along with the 1404 level. We are on the lookout for a reaction off these resistance levels for a move lower, which a sell-off could be very near. There is also resistance a bit higher at 1406.96. A break below 1386 and price action is likely headed towards 1349-1355 area.

ES 30min chart

For more chart coverage and more in-depth research and analysis, join our Premium members content. Also receive more interaction with Market Overflow as we provide Elliott Wave analysis and technical research to help your trading/investing become more profitable. If you have any questions contact Ben, Founder and Chief Analyst, at marketoverflow@gmail.com, or contact us here. We do have a free 14-day Premium content trial to try out research and analysis service with trade recommendations. If you’re interested in the **Free Premium Trial** contact us here.

Market Report

Market Overflow — Wed, 21 Mar 2012 00:52:27 +0000

Here is a peak at some analysis content of what our Premium members receive on a daily basis.

Taking a look at copper price action and we see a potential five wave move developing to the upside, which could likely be a leading diagonal for wave (1). If our wave count is correct, then risk related assets should do well in the days ahead. A move higher would target the 4.11-4.20 area.

HG Daily chart

Crude oil has been moving sideways for about a month now and it appears to have formed a bullish wedge for wave 4. Price action broke out of the wedge last week to the upside and the retracement has found 61.8% fib support at 105.68, and is prepared to make another move higher in the short-term. The continued move higher should target the 113.12 and 113.63 levels initially for wave iii.

CL 1Hour chart

The USDJPY is pointed higher perhaps in an ending diagonal fashion. A move higher points towards the 84.38 level and the 85.23 level in extension.

USDJPY 1Hour chart

The USDCHF appears to have completed wave (ii) and is targeting a move lower to about the 0.8759 level.

USDCHF 1Hour chart

For more chart coverage and more in-depth research and analysis, join our Premium members content. Also receive more interaction with Market Overflow as we provide Elliott Wave analysis and technical research to help your trading/investing become more profitable. If you have any questions contact Ben, Founder and Chief Analyst, at marketoverflow@gmail.com, or contact us here. We do have a free 14-day Premium content trial to try out research and analysis service with trade recommendations. If you’re interested in the **Free Premium Trial** contact us here.