You are here: Home / Archives for AUDUSD

Market Overflow – Newsletter – 11.27.2011

November 27, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Market Overflow Newsletter

www.marketoverflow.com

Full Market Analysis

As of 11.27.2011

This is the first release of our newsletters.  It essentially is an update on the markets as a whole.  This more broad perspective on the core markets helps us to better anticipate the next direction as they relate to each other.

In summary, the markets have increased in volatility in recent weeks and equities have continued to increase momentum to the downside.  The larger bear trend has resumed lower as the longer term cycle has once again created plenty of selling pressure.  The SPX, EURUSD, Oil, and TNX have been moving lower together, which was anticipated.  The October bounce seems to over for equities and a much larger mover lower seems to be in the weeks and months ahead.  Our longer term bearish bias on the SPX and bullish USD stance continues to remain our conviction.  With that bias, the markets should follow in their correlations as we believe the USD and the SPX will continue to lead the markets.  For the last several months we have been suggesting that the market could be making a major shift that could have a large impact on the markets for the medium and long-term.  We maintain that the past couple years have been nothing but a bear market rally in the larger economy and specifically equities.

We want to highlight two charts, the DX and CL.  Both are sending strong signals of what to possibly expect in the near term.  The DX chart shows that price action has broken through the long-term trend line resistance and appears to be set up in a bullish formation for the longer term.  The trend line extended from 6.9.2010 to 10.4.2011.  The 86 price level is our target in the weeks ahead.  The CL chart displays that the long-term trend line resistance held price action from moving higher as it temporarily broke above, but since then has moved sharply lower.  The trend line extended all the way back from 2.12.2009.  Also notice that the recent spike high hit a resistance level at 103.45 before it reversed to the current lower levels.  Our near term downside target is $85.59 as price action continues to retreat from overbought levels.

For a full analysis, join our Premium service.  Details are here.  Sign up is here.

Newsletter Archives.


DX Daily Candle chart


CL Daily Candle chart

 

SPX / ES  – Bearish

Our wave count suggests lower levels in the near term.

 

USD Index — Bullish

The USD continues to set up a bullish formation, and has broken above trend line resistance signaling the continuation of the move higher.

 

EURUSD — Bearish

The opposite of the US Dollar is the EURUSD.  The USD is the lesser of two evils here and should see significant strength and therefore, downside price action in the EURUSD in the months ahead.

 

CL Crude Oil — Bearish

The breakdown through the trend line support, as displayed above, should continue to put pressure on price action.

 

 Gold — Neutral/Bearish

Gold has seen a nice rebound in October, but November seen the return of the bears as price action has dropped lower, and is likely to continue.

 

Silver — Bearish

Similar to Gold, silver appears to be head lower with equities.

 

TNX – 10 yr Treasury Note — Bearish

We continue to get closer and closer to our long-term forecast predicted months ago.  Yields should continue to move lower.

 


 

Market Bias & Forecasts

Market 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months
SPX Bearish Bearish Bearish
ES Bearish Bearish Bearish
Gold Bearish Bearish Neutral
Silver Bearish Neutral Neutral
CL Bearish Bearish Bearish
DX Bullish Bullish Neutral
EURUSD Bearish Bearish Neutral
USDCAD Bullish Bullish Bullish
AUDUSD Bearish Bearish Bearish
GBP/USD Bearish Bearish Bearish
USD/CHF Bullish Bullish Bullish
Filed Under: Newsletters Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , ,

Market Report – 11.22.2011

November 22, 2011 By Leave a Comment

As we approach the U.S. Thanksgiving Holiday price action will likely begin to slow a bit.  We may start to see some irrational moves and very short-term trades.  Also the market tends to want to rally into Holidays, but there are certainly enough pressures to keep the markets from doing so or at least limit any rally.

The ES has rallied in the overnight session and may have completed a minor 4th wave correction.  A push above the overnight highs would extend the correction but should be limited.  We are expecting another push to the downside before a reasonable correction takes place.  The price levels of 1186 and 1178 should offer as support in the near term.

Try out our free quarterly Market Overflow Newsletter.  This is a new feature for Market Overflow that will include an intermarket analysis of equities, bonds, commodities, currencies, and the precious metals.

ES 4Hour Candle chart


The USD Index finds trend line support.  Let’s see if price action can bounce higher to get our minor 3rd wave.  If not, and price action breaks through the trend line support then there is reason to be concerned in the short-term.

DX Hourly Candle chart


The EURUSD seems to be the mirror opposite of the DX.  Price action hits up against trend line resistance and should push lower in the near term.  A break above is reason for short-term concern.

EURUSD 4Hour Candle chart

 

The AUDUSD may try to make one more push lower before a more sustained retracement higher.  Our bias remains bearish.

AUDUSD Hourly Candle chart

 

Comments are welcome on our analysis as we encourage an open dialogue.  We would be more than happy to answer any questions that you might have.

[Read more...]

Filed Under: Market Reports, Uncategorized Tagged With: , , ,

Market Report – 11.21.2011

November 21, 2011 By 2 Comments

As you may have noticed we have changed the format of our website to better accommodate our new features such as membership content and newsletters.  If your interested in the membership content please email me at marketoverflow@gmail.com.  Our membership content may go live as early as this evening, but more updates will be coming about that.  However, we will still post free content until the membership is completely live.  Once the membership content is live, we will only offer a limited amount of content for free.  We hope that you have enjoyed the analysis we have provided for the last 4 months, and have profited from it greatly.  Our fund continues to perform very well, as we  have taken trades that we have forecasted for that last several months.

Regarding the markets, I have had several emails asking about the price action unfolding since the Sunday session open.  The “risk off” sentiment should continue to increase in momentum as we have been forecasting for weeks.  The USD has strengthened and equities have weakened, which is what we suggested would happen for weeks now.  Our bias has not changed.

Now looking at the ES, the equity futures have moved sharply to the downside as expected indicating that the SPX will open sharply lower.  Support may come in at 1186 and 1178 for a minor retracement before the downside continues to about the 1144 area which is our initial target.

Try out our free quarterly Market Overflow Newsletter.  This is a new feature for Market Overflow that will include an intermarket analysis of equities, bonds, commodities, currencies, and the precious metals.

ES 4Hour Candle chart



Crude Oil has broken through our trend line support which we have been suggesting would be a trigger for “risk off” price action.  This breach will likely accelerate to the downside and cause the USD Index to strengthen further and the SPX to weaken further.  Longer term, crude oil is headed much lower.

CL Daily Candle chart


The USD Index continues to push higher.  We are looking towards the 80.63 level as our initial target.

DX 4Hour Candle chart

 

The EURUSD should break down much more in the days ahead.  Our initial target is 1.3021, which should be reached soon.

EURUSD 4Hour Candle chart

 

The AUDUSD continues its bearish price action as well.  Support will be difficult to come by in the days ahead.

AUDUSD 4Hour Candle chart

 

Comments are welcome on our analysis as we encourage an open dialogue.  We would be more than happy to answer any questions that you might have.

[Read more...]

Filed Under: Market Reports Tagged With: , , , ,

Market Report – Evening Post – 11.16.2011

November 16, 2011 By Leave a Comment

The name of the game has been preservation of capital while the markets remained in corrective patterns over the past several weeks.  Although painful at times, thinking that we could be missing out on some moves in the markets, we have remained patient and disciplined to our trading rules, which are intermarket correlation and confirmation.  After days of sitting on our hands for the most part, it seems time to break out the bearish equity hats and bullish USD gear as it appears the table is set for a breakout in the markets.  The main indicators that are causing us to lean heavily towards “risk off” is the currencies and bond markets.  The USD continues to show signs of a breakout move higher and bond yields are breaking lower once again as we have been expecting for some time.

Before we look at the charts below, I want to be clear that it doesn’t excite me to think about the markets potentially breaking down, which will likely cause a lot of people pain in their investment portfolios.  However, it does excite me to take advantage of a tremendous trading opportunity.  My feelings are similar to this European trader in this video that we posted several weeks ago.  We simply want to take advantage of the opportunity ahead of us as we do our due diligence on the markets.  As traders, we shouldn’t be shocked to see the markets break down as a result of the disastrous policy making here in the U.S. and around the world.  We hope for solid fundamentals for the markets to continue to increase in value over time, but we recognize that that simply doesn’t happen in these current environments.  It doesn’t matter to us if the markets are going up or down, we trade what we see in terms of price action.  We seek to earn a return on our capital no matter which direction the markets want to go.  

With that said, we are clearly bearish “risk” in the days and weeks ahead, however take caution as the markets should continue to pick up in volatility.  

The SPX appears ready to break down in a wave 3 of a 3rd wave of a 3rd wave, which is an ultimate bearish scenario.  This will be confirmed with a break below the 1225 level with increasing downward price action.  This should likely push lower until we reach oversold levels, which could be much much lower.   

Try out our free quarterly Market Overflow Newsletter.  This is a new feature for Market Overflow that will include an intermarket analysis of equities, bonds, commodities, currencies, and the precious metals.

SPX 4Hour Candle chart


We have been tracking this wave count for months now and have not changed our chart at all.  The price action for the 10 year treasury yield is clearly bearish and we continue to target the 15 level in the days ahead.  This chart alone has kept our bias bearish “risk” for months now.  Until this move completes, we should remain bearish.

TNX Daily Candle chart


The USD Index is in a 1-2, 1-2 formation with a 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd wave on the move higher, which should really push price action higher in a short amount of time.  

DX 4Hour Candle chart

The EURUSD is the opposite of the DX.  We are targeting the 1.2822 level in the days ahead.

EURUSD 4Hour Candle chart

The AUDUSD is very similar to the EURUSD.  We are looking at possibly reaching the 0.90 level by the end of the year.

AUDUSD 4Hour Candle chart

Comments are welcome on our analysis as we encourage an open dialogue.  We would be more than happy to answer any questions that you might have.

[Read more...]

Filed Under: Market Reports Tagged With: , , , ,

Market Report – 11.15.2011

November 15, 2011 By Leave a Comment

UPDATE

As of 11.15.2011 – 10:30am cst

Volatile markets in the morning trading session.  Crude oil seems to be holding up pretty well and the sell off in equities continues to be weak.  At this point I’m expecting the 1240 or the 1234 levels to hold price action from making a sustained move lower on the SPX.  So at this point our alternate, shorter term, bullish risk counts are favored.  We will provide updates as price action develops further.  A wait and see approach still seems prudent at this point.

Today seems like another wait and see day.  There will be plenty of moves to take advantage of in the days ahead, but it is important to trade lite or simply wait for confirmation before entering trades.  We will be keeping a close eye on the SPX today based upon the two counts we presented last night.  We are waiting for one of them to be confirmed.

Crude oil continues to flirt with trend line support.  We will be watching this closely today.  A sustained break below the 97.50 level today, and we may be seeing the beginning of a larger “risk off” move unfold in the markets.

Try out our free quarterly Market Overflow Newsletter.  This is a new feature for Market Overflow that will include an intermarket analysis of equities, bonds, commodities, currencies, and the precious metals.

CL Daily Candle chart


Here is an update of our primary USD index count, which expects immediate upside price action in the days ahead.  The over night session gave us more upside price action, but it must continue above the minor wave 1 high in the near term for confirmation.  A point of concern is conditions are nearing overbought territory for a wave 3.

DX 4Hour Candle chart



An updated look at our alternate USD Index count can still allow for the correction to continue lower in the short term before the bullish trend resumes.  Longer term our bias remain bullish.

DX 4Hour Candle chart

The EURUSD seems to continue to push lower below our two resistance levels.  A move below minor wave 1 lows will increase our conviction of this wave count.  Caution though as we near oversold levels.

EURUSD 4Hour Candle chart

The AUDUSD count sees a 1-2, 1-2 development and has continued to push lower.

AUDUSD 4Hour Candle chart

A closer look at the AUDUSD chart sees two critical levels to break through the keep the downside movement going.  Those levels are 1.0107 and 1.0051.

AUDUSD 4Hour Candle chart

Comments are welcome on our analysis as we encourage an open dialogue.  We would be more than happy to answer any questions that you might have.

[Read more...]

Filed Under: Market Reports Tagged With: , , ,

Market Report – 11.11.2011

November 11, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Should be a slow day for the makets with the holiday today, so we aren’t epecting too much.  There have been several emails asking for some shorter time frame charts on the currencies.  We have provided those below. As we look across the charts, the common theme seems to be a triangle correction that should continue today.

We have revised our Crude Oil wave count and see critical resistance ahead at 99.37.  Once the trend line is broken on a move lower, price action should begin to move swiftly to the downside and help jump start a larger “risk off” theme.

Try out our free quarterly Market Overflow Newsletter.  This is a new feature for Market Overflow that will include an intermarket analysis of equities, bonds, commodities, currencies, and the precious metals.

CL Daily Candle chart


Looking a bit lower for the USD Index before it continues higher in the trend.

DX Hourly Candle chart



The EURUSD is likely to continue its correction higher before it resumes its downward trend.

EURUSD Hourly Candle chart

The AUDUSD is looking to squeeze out more short positions before it makes its journey lower.  Next week should be interesting.

AUDUSD Hourly Candle chart

Comments are welcome on our analysis as we encourage an open dialogue.  We would be more than happy to answer any questions that you might have.

[Read more...]

Filed Under: Market Reports Tagged With: , , ,

Market Report – Evening Post – 11.10.2011

November 10, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Choppy rebound, which indicates a correction move.  The charts below indicate a bit further for a retracement before “risk off” returns.  The next move should carry a lot more momentum.

The SPX has completed a minor wave 1 lower for the beginning of wave 3.  Take caution on long positions at this point due to a sudden steep drop in price action should be very near.

Try out our free quarterly Market Overflow Newsletter.  This is a new feature for Market Overflow that will include an intermarket analysis of equities, bonds, commodities, currencies, and the precious metals.

SPX Hourly Candle chart


The USD Index continues in a correcting triangle pattern and we are expecting a push lower before price action extends back to the upside.

DX Hourly Candle chart



The EURUSD appears to be in a triangle correction pattern that should exit higher before the downtrend resumes.

EURUSD Hourly Candle chart

The AUDUSD also may push a bit higher to complete a correction move.  Like the other USD currecy pairs, the AUDUSD points to significant gains for the buck ahead.

AUDUSD Hourly Candle chart

Comments are welcome on our analysis as we encourage an open dialogue.  We would be more than happy to answer any questions that you might have.

[Read more...]

Filed Under: Market Reports Tagged With: , , ,

Market Report – 11.10.2011

November 10, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Today should be an interesting day which should provide us with more clarity in terms of where this market will be head in the short term.  The seasonality of the market may continue to bid the market higher and should create price battle today.

We have charted the two leading scenarios that could unfold for the ES.  If the ES is in a wave 3 lower then price action must turn lower very soon and break below the triangle support trend line.  If not, we may expect a further correction higher over the next couple weeks.

Try out our free quarterly Market Overflow Newsletter.  This is a new feature for Market Overflow that will include an intermarket analysis of equities, bonds, commodities, currencies, and the precious metals.

ES 4Hour Candle chart


The USD Index sure appears to be impulisive in the move higher, which gives credibility to the wave 3 scenario for the ES and SPX.  We are expecting price action to move higher again with more momentum.  Price action is at support, but could fall a bit further before the move higher resumes. 

DX 4Hour Candle chart



The EURUSD also has a wave 3 look and is likely to turn back lower very soon.  Price action is beginning to hit up against resistance.

EURUSD 4Hour Candle chart

The AUDUSD appears the most bearish of the USD currency pairs with much lower levles ahead.

AUDUSD 4Hour Candle chart

Comments are welcome on our analysis as we encourage an open dialogue.  We would be more than happy to answer any questions that you might have.

[Read more...]

Filed Under: Market Reports Tagged With: , , ,

Market Report – Evening Post – 11.9.2011

November 9, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Big down day for equities.  It seems that it wave (ii) may be complete and wave (iii) could be underway.  If so, we should expect to see the SPX to continue to sell off with more momentum.  It seems likely that we are in a wave 3 acceleration lower given that the USD is pushing higher and bonds yields are dropping.

Try out our free quarterly Market Overflow Newsletter.  This is a new feature for Market Overflow that will include an intermarket analysis of equities, bonds, commodities, currencies, and the precious metals.

SPX Daily Candle chart


Crude Oil may be putting in a longer term top and setting the stage for much lower prices in the weeks ahead.  

CL Daily Candle chart


Gold seems to be backing off of 1775 fib resistance which could be a wave b top.  The correction is likely to continue lower.

GC Weekly Candle chart

The USD Index broke out of our channel and may be off to the races higher towards our target of 81.41, which may only take a couple weeks.

DX 4Hour Candle chart

If we see equities continue to sell off tomorrow, which would further confirm a wave 3, then we may see the USD go vertical towards the 80.08 level.  This seems crazy, but it is within the realm of possibility given the circumstances.

DX 30min Candle chart

The AUDUSD has confirmed a move lower for wave 3 with much lower levels ahead.

AUDUSD 4Hour Candle chart

Comments are welcome on our analysis as we encourage an open dialogue.  We would be more than happy to answer any questions that you might have.

[Read more...]

Filed Under: Market Reports Tagged With: , , , ,

Market Report – 11.9.2011

November 9, 2011 By Leave a Comment

UPDATE

As of 11.9.2011 – 2:15pm cst

I have received several emails about the USD.  It appears that we are in a wave 3, which means that the USD is likely to strengthen significantly in the days and weeks ahead.  The USDCAD remains to confirm this move for the USD, but it seems that its only a matter of time that price action will explode higher through that 1.0220-1.0235 resistance area.  More charts coming later.

Equity futures have sold off due to the skyrocketing Italian bond yields.  We were expecting a sell off in equities and we should see a large gap open lower for the SPX today.  

The ES chart below shows a possible b wave as complete, but we are not convinced that the top is in yet.  The reason is that the 78.6% retracement of the entire move lower in equities is near by at 1307.  It seems relatively likely that the bulls have their eyes set on that resistance point.  They are likely wanting to make a run above that level to force a short squeeze push higher, and the bears will be forced to defend it.  At the moment that is all speculative.  So we have charted a scenario to expect another push higher before the bearish trend resumes.  If the ES pushes below the 1208 level with momentum then we will need to use our alternate count of a wave three move lower.  We will be watching closely, but we do not expect much further downside today in addition to the gap open lower.  To be clear our bias remains bearish for much lower levels in the weeks ahead once the correction is considered complete.

Try out our free quarterly Market Overflow Newsletter.  This is a new feature for Market Overflow that will include an intermarket analysis of equities, bonds, commodities, currencies, and the precious metals.

ES 4Hour Candle chart


The DX touched our gray rectangle “long” area and has pushed much higher.  We have locked in profits due to our concern for our non-confirmation of intermarket analysis that “risk off” is completely on.  The DX could push higher, but if it does we can always re-enter the trade.  We currently have the chart labeled as a completed wave 2, however, if we see a significant pullback today we may have to chart a further correction lower.  Our longer term bias remains bullish, but we are talkiing caution at the moment.  

DX 4Hour Candle chart


The EURUSD has broken below the channel support and we may be seeing a wave 3 lower underway.  We have moved the potentially completed wave 2 over and are looking for this move lower to push below 1.3607 for confirmation.  If we do not see a sustained push below that level, then we may be at risk of a further retracement higher and adjust our wave count.

EURUSD 4Hour Candle chart

The AUDUSD is a chart that has us concerned that the USD strength may be a fake out at this point due to a possible abcde setup.  If we get a sustained push below the wave 1 low then wave 3 is likely underway and we should expect much lower levels.  However, if price action pulls back and gets back above the channel then we may see a short squeeze higher to complete a wave 2 correction.  A concerning point right now is the oversold conditions that is suggesting a short squeeze could unfold.

AUDUSD Hourly Candle chart

The USDCAD still remains within the channel.  A sustained move above the upper channel resistance would suggest the USD strength has returned.  Typically the USDCAD leads the other USD currency pairs when it strengthens and it doesn’t seem to be the case at the moment which is reason for caution not to get overly bullish the USD yet.  The prudent move is to wait for confirmation.  The USD has plenty of upside to go if indeed strength has returned.

USDCAD 4Hour Candle chart

Comments are welcome on our analysis as we encourage an open dialogue.  We would be more than happy to answer any questions that you might have.

[Read more...]

Filed Under: Market Reports Tagged With: , , , ,
« Older Posts
Newer Posts »