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Market Report – Weekend Edition – 2.5.2012

February 5, 2012 By Leave a Comment

The better than expected US NFP data that was released last Friday morning, and we receive a nice bullish move higher for the markets as we expected.  The path of least resistance has been higher and we have no reason to abandon that continued bias.  It does seem though that currency traders may cut back their expectations of a round 3 of a USD-weakening quantitative easing effort.  We are wondering if this will change the landscape for the USD against the EUR, perhaps in the short-term, however, USD shorts may experience a short squeeze.  Therefore, as we continue to stay out-of-the-way of a difficult EURUSD to trade, we must try to understand its impact on the markets.

Our initial target has been hit for the SPX at the 1344-1345 area.  Price action is in overbought territory on the 1hour chart, but we could see price action push higher in the short-term to our extended target of the 1356 price level.  It seems prudent to take partial profits at minimum with a potential wave 4 pullback that could unfold in the short-term.  Our bias remains bullish for the next several weeks.

SPX 1Hour chart

 

The USD index continues to appear bearish especially if price action can break through below the 78.75-79.15 area, which has produced a bit of congestion for the short-term.  Although the SPX/DX inverse correlation has been challenged a bit this year, the two have tightened up that relationship as of late.

DX 1Hour chart

 

Similar to the DX chart above, but inversely related, price action could breakout to the upside if this wave count is correct.  The 1.3144-1.3216 price area is the congestion zone for the short-term.  A break above could really get price action moving to the upside.  We continue to have a neutral conviction on this pair as there remains to be a lot of cross currents affecting price action.

EURUSD Daily chart

 

As of late, we have been tracking the EURGBP, and believe there may be a nice opportunity in the short-term for lower price levels ahead.

EURGBP 1Hour chart

 

Crude oil is critical for longer term SPX bulls.  If we have seen the completion of a wave 2, we should expect much higher price levels in the weeks ahead, which should support the SPX for a continued move higher.

CL 4Hour chart

 

Our forex darling, the AUDUSD, continues to move higher as we have forecasted weeks ago.  We continue to like the price action that we see here, and will likely continue to trade it in the days and weeks ahead.

AUDUSD 30min chart

 

Join our premium members as we continue to stick with what has been working to trade the EURNZD, AUDUSD, and EURGBP pairs, which have a more clear wave count providing us an edge on the markets.  Our current trade has been working very well and we are positioned nicely for further gains this week.

 

For more chart coverage and more in-depth research and analysis, join our premium members content.  Also receive more interaction with Market Overflow as we provide Elliott Wave analysis and technical research to help your trading become more profitable.  If you have any questions contact Ben, Founder and Chief Analyst, at marketoverflow@gmail.com, or contact us here.  Try our free 7-day Premium content trial to experience our research and analysis service with trade recommendations.  If you’re interested in the  **Free Premium Trial** contact us  here.

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Market Report – 2.3.2012

February 3, 2012 By Leave a Comment

The targets on a move higher is 1332 and 1339 in extension.  We should achieve those levels in a short amount of time if the data comes in as expected or better.

ES 1Hour chart

 

The EURUSD is setting the stage for another move higher, which is contrary to a lot of the headlines in the news these days.  Price action tells us everything.

EURUSD 1Hour chart

 

Crude oil has been moving lower, but price action appears corrective.  Our bias is for higher prices in the weeks ahead targeting 113.78 and 120.85.

CL 4Hour chart

 

For more chart coverage and more in-depth research and analysis, join our premium members content.  Also receive more interaction with Market Overflow as we provide Elliott Wave analysis and technical research to help your trading become more profitable.  If you have any questions contact Ben, Founder and Chief Analyst, at marketoverflow@gmail.com, or contact us here.  Try our free 7-day Premium content trial to experience our research and analysis service with trade recommendations.  If your are interested in the  **Free Premium Trial** contact us  here.

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Market Report – Update – 1.29.2012

January 29, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Another interesting week ahead of us after the US Fed decided to maintain its very easy monetary policy of low-interest rates and potentially more quantitative easing.  These actions are likely going to hurt the buck and support equities for the next several weeks and months ahead.  The USD index is likely going to tell the story for the markets as we expect weakness to return to being the theme.  As we look at the different markets in this report, it seems that another push in risk-on sentiment is likely to continue to unfold.

The DX seems to be in a wave (3) move lower which should continue to see strong selling pressure to keep the index heavy this week.  Many analysts are looking for a rebound in price action, but we simply do not see that anytime soon for any significant rally.

DX 1Hour Candle chart

 

The S&P 500 appears that it may have another small wave lower to find support at about 1307 for minor wave 4 in the near term, but our focus is for price action to continue higher this week.

SPX 1Hour Candle chart

 

Crude oil hasn’t done much in recent weeks and has pretty much gone sideways since mid-November.  We expect price action to break out to the upside soon with a shorter term target of $115, which should be boosted by a lower USD.

CL 4Hour Candle chart

 

Our favorite risk-on currency continues to be the AUDUSD, so if we are bullish on equities then we continue to like price action here to continue higher.  Our wave count confirms our bias.

AUDUSD 1Hour Candle chart

 

Another interesting currency play is the EURNZD.  Instead of trading the EURUSD, we like a short EURNZD position with our expectation that the Euro will continue to have its troubles, but it would be far better to be short the Euro against the stronger New Zealand Dollar, which is setting up for a big move lower.

EURNZD 1Hour Candle chart

 

For more chart coverage and more in-depth research and analysis, join our premium members content.  Also receive more interaction with Market Overflow as we provide Elliott Wave analysis and technical research to help your trading become more profitable.  If you have any questions contact Ben, Founder and Chief Analyst, at marketoverflow@gmail.com, or contact us here.  Try our free 7-day Premium content trial to experience our research and analysis service with trade recommendations.  If your are interested in the  **Free Premium Trial** contact us  here.

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Market Report – 1.22.2012

January 22, 2012 By Leave a Comment

The past several weeks have been a slow grind higher for the S&P 500, and it seems that we have been stuck in a “hurry up and wait” market.  The extended move higher is likely drawing in more and more long positions for the SPX, which is a case of traders being afraid of missing a move higher.  When traders begin to pile in a certain trading position, typically the market will shake those traders out.  Therefore, current levels are very dangerous for long positions as price action remains at a critical inflection point.  We have two different wave counts for the SPX, and it seems both would suggest a move lower soon.  A move lower would be in the form of the start of a larger move lower that would last several months, or it would be a smaller retracement setting up a continued move higher for the next several months.

The wave counts for several markets are not very clean, which likely means that we remain in corrective patterns.  These scenarios are difficult for traders, and typically cause traders to lose trading capital due to a lack of a tradable trend.  It makes a lot of sense to remain patient to wait for the higher probability trades.  Trading is a game of “where are my probabilities the best or better”.  Remember of course that the tendency for the markets is go higher, and on average the market goes higher.  Also it is important to note that Chinese equities may have based out in the short-term at minimum for a move higher, which could support the S&P 500 and Crude Oil.  The USD index continues to be a mess, and our conviction is to not buy the DX.  We actually prefer selling the DX at current levels.  Now to the charts.

Our current primary wave count for the SPX remains to be this first daily chart below.  The abc correction higher has pushed above the critical 1306 level with a very important trend line resistance just above current levels.  Currently the trend line comes in at about 1322-1324.  The trend line extends lower all the way back from the 10.11.2007 high.  A break above would be critical for the bulls and really hurt the bears.  It is important to recognize that this move higher is becoming overextended and overbought, therefore it is due for a pullback at minimum.  However, if this wave count is correct, once price action puts in a top we should see sharp price action lower very verry soon.  If we don’t get the sharp price action lower very soon, then we must shift to our alternate wave count.

SPX Daily Candle chart

 

Here is a look at our alternate wave count for the SPX.  It is a more bullish interpretation that expects more upside in the near term.  The evidence across the markets is pushing us more and more to this interpretation, especially if we don’t get a sell-off very soon.

SPX Daily Candle chart

 

The TNX has failed to break below 18, which likely points to higher levels in the near term.  We expect that price action may create an abcde triangle for wave iv over the next couple months.

TNX Daily Candle chart

 

Copper continues to look very choppy and may have higher levels ahead to complete the corrective wave (b).

HG Daily Candle chart

 

Crude oil has continued its holding pattern, but we believe a wave 3 break out to the upside is very near.  This expectation is part of what has us leaning more and more towards a bullish SPX for the months ahead.  Price action should find good support at the 98.37 and 97.35 levels, where we believe it’s a buy.

CL Daily Candle chart

 

The AUDUSD continues to be one of our favored wave counts that we have continued to track.  We expect price action to complete wave (1) soon, and then retrace lower for wave (2).  This wave count is very bullish for the AUDUSD, which likely means that the SPX is headed higher.  We will be looking to enter a long position soon, if price action plays accordingly.

AUDUSD 4Hour Candle chart

 

Apple is pulling back for a buy opportunity soon, which is another bullish indicator for the markets.

AAPL 4Hour Candle chart

 

For more chart coverage and more in-depth research and analysis, join our premium members content.  Also receive more interaction with Market Overflow as we provide Elliott Wave analysis and technical research to help your trading become more profitable.  If you have any questions contact Ben, Founder and Chief Analyst, at marketoverflow@gmail.com, or contact us here.  Try our free 7-day Premium content trial to experience our research and analysis service with trade recommendations.  If your are interested in the  **Free Premium Trial** contact us  here.

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Market Report – 1.18.2012

January 18, 2012 By Leave a Comment

The following is a post of Premium content that has been made available to guests.  This is an example of what our Premium members receive several times each day.

 

The SPX may have another push higher to complete many waves as indicated in the chart.  We may be looking at a very important top.  The rally seems to be on borrowed time, especially as we evaluated the entire market landscape.

SPX 1Hour Candle chart

 

The TNX gave back all of its early gains yesterday, which is a signal of a continued risk off tone for the market.  With the “safe haven” buying of treasuries and the S&P 500 running out of gas yesterday, it seems that a major risk off move could come at any time and may be getting underway now.  We see the TNX as making another move lower the 15 level at a minimum, which is what we have been forecasting for months now.

TNX 4Hour Candle chart

 

Copper has moved higher in corrective fashion and has hit up against some stiff resistance at 3.75.  This could be the end of wave (iv) for another push lower, which would be bearish for the economy.

HG 4Hour Candle chart

 

Crude oil continues to flirt with a 2-month old trend line that has acted as support and resistance.  If price action breaks down again through the supportive trend line, we may be seeing the beginning of a big move to the downside.

CL 4Hour Candle chart

 

A very important long-term trend line has capped the move higher for the AUDUSD, which prevent the “risk on” tone from advancing.  A failure to break above would mean that we could see a very sizeable move to the downside develop soon.

AUDUSD 4Hour Candle chart

 

For more chart coverage and more in-depth research and analysis, join our premium members content.  Also receive more interaction with Market Overflow as we provide Elliott Wave analysis and technical research to help your trading/investing become more profitable.  If you have any questions contact Ben, Founder and Chief Analyst, at marketoverflow@gmail.com, or contact us here.  We do have a free 7-day Premium content trial to try out research and analysis service with trade recommendations.  If your are interested in the  **Free Premium Trial** contact us  here.

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Market Overflow – Newsletter – 12.18.2011

December 18, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Market Overflow Newsletter

www.marketoverflow.com

Full Market Analysis

As of 12.18.2011

For a full analysis, join our Premium service.  Details are here.  Sign up is here. We have a 7-Day Free Premium trial going on for a limited time, details are here.

Newsletter Archives

 

Our newsletter is a weekly update on the markets as a whole, which is a broad perspective on the core markets that helps us to better anticipate the next directions as they relate to each other.  This week we are providing a look at what our premium members receive on a daily basis with updates throughout the day.

Keep in mind this week that we are now amidst pre-holiday trading conditions, which means that all set-ups, no matter how robust, will need to be managed closely as declining liquidity will begin to adversely impact price action.

Focusing on the SPX, over the last several trading days we have mentioned that the 1210-1221 area was an important support area.  Those levels were tested several times this last week and price action has bounced higher and currently rests just below the 1220 level.  As long as price action remains above the 1210-1221 area, our bias remains bullish towards higher levels.  The most critical level is the 1200 level, which is the 61.8% fib retracement level.  If price action on the SPX were to slip below the 1210 level to reach the 1200 level, we would need to see a bounce higher to maintain our bullish bias for the short-term.

Although we remain bullish on the SPX for the next week or two, we can’t ignore other factors that call into question the rally, which is the situation in Europe.  The last summit didn’t do much at all but extend liquidity to banks and governments, but nothing to address the more critical components of solvency and economic growth.  It seems to be more and more clear that Europe will be stuck with slow growth and a recessionary environment for months if not years as the best case scenario.  As of now, there are simply no mechanisms in place that allow for any other outcome as of now.  In addition, Bernanke indicated that the Fed had no intention or authority to bail out governments or European banks.

We may conclude that equities and more specifically the Euro are most certainly headed lower.  Although from a macro perspective that is a very logical argument, we know however, that markets are often not driven by logic, thus to become a perma-bear the Euro or equities is no easy trade.  We will continue to analyze the markets with an intermarket perspective and Elliott wave recognition, so that we may have en edge on the markets as we trade.  Setups will continue to be very important as volatility continues to increase.

Heading into this week the market is aware of a possible French downgrade that could shake the markets up a bit to increase volatility.  If that happens the implications are for a subsequent downgrade of the ESFS, the European bailout fund, by Standard and Poors.  Should this happen the EURUSD path of least resistance is lower, especially considering the weak technical backdrop.  A lower EURUSD would likely keep pressure on equities to likely drop lower.  We will be watching closely on those developments.

We have SPX charts to highlight for the week with two scenarios that we are considering below.  Join our premium members for more trading insight and research of the markets as a whole with more specific trade recommendations.

 

Our Primary wave count for the SPX expects a rebound from current level to push higher to near the 1300 level to complete wave (c) and (ii).  There is several levels of resistance that should push price action back to the downside if we reach those levels.

SPX Daily Candle chart – Primary

 

 

Taking a closer look at the SPX, our primary wave count allows for another drop lower to the 1200 level, but that level must hold with a bounce higher to maintain our confidence in this wave count.  Price action on the move lower seems very sloppy with plenty of overlapping price action signaling that we may see another move higher in the near term.  A move above the 1231.41 level would invalidate this wave count.

SPX 1Hour Candle chart – Primary

 

 

Our alternate wave count expects the downward movement to be complete. but that level must hold with a bounce higher to maintain our confidence in this wave count.  A move below 1215.17 would invalidate this wave count.

SPX 1Hour Candle chart – Primary – Alternate

 

Our alternate wave count for the daily SPX chart expects price action to continue to drop to lower levels with a 1-2, 1-2 wave count unfolding.  Price action should continue to drop to much lower levels in the short-term and we need to see increasing momentum to the downside if this wave count is correct.

SPX Daily Candle chart – Alternate

 

A closer look at our alternate count shows that it would be invalidated if price action moves above 1231.53 before it gets below 1209.47, which is the minor wave 3 low.

SPX Daily Candle chart – Alternate

 

SPX / ES  – Bullish

Our wave count suggests higher levels in the near term, but be prepared to take caution as price action reaches higher resistance levels.

 

USD Index — Bearish

The USD now displays some potential corrective price action to the downside after the incredible week the buck had last week.    A stronger bullish move may be just around the corner.

 

EURUSD — Bullish

The opposite of the US Dollar is the EURUSD.  The USD may weaken some this week if equities are to make a push higher, but that likely only presents a tremendous opportunity to join a big move to the upside for the buck as the Euro has plenty of downside ahead as the Euro zone faces major problems that will unlikely be resolved without the currency suffering.

 

CL Crude Oil — Bullish

Price action seems to be setting up for another push higher with equities.

 

= Gold — Neutral/Bearish

Inflation pressures have eased due to a slowdown to the global economy, therefore, demand for gold may weaken a bit in the near term.

 

=Silver — Neutral/Bullish

Silver may trade sideways to higher with equities, but will remain sensitive to negative headline risk.

 

=TNX – 10 yr Treasury Note — Bearish

We continue get closer and closer to our long-term forecast predicted months ago of 15.  Yields are likely to set up another drop to those lower levels in the next couple weeks.

 

Market Bias & Forecasts

Market 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months
SPX Bullish Bearish Bearish
ES Bullish Bearish Bearish
Gold Neutral Bearish Bullish
Silver Bullish Bearish Neutral
CL Bullish Bearish Bearish
DX Bearish Bullish Bullish
EURUSD Bullish Bearish Bearish
USDCAD Bearish Bullish Bullish
AUDUSD Bullish Bearish Bearish
GBP/USD Bullish Bearish Bearish
USD/CHF Bullish Bearish Neutral
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Market Overflow – Newsletter – 11.27.2011

December 4, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Market Overflow Newsletter

www.marketoverflow.com

Full Market Analysis

As of 11.27.2011

 

This is the first release of our newsletters.  It essentially is an update on the markets as a whole.  This is a more broad perspective on the core markets that helps us to better anticipate the next directions as they relate to each other.

In summary, the markets have increased in volatility in recent weeks and equities have continued to increase momentum to the downside.  The larger bear trend has resumed lower as the longer term cycle has once again created plenty of selling pressure.  The SPX, EURUSD, Oil, and TNX have been moving lower together, which was anticipated.  The October bounce seems to be over for equities and a much larger mover lower seems to be the direction in the weeks and months ahead.  Our longer term bearish bias for the SPX and bullish USD stance remains to be our conviction.  With that bias, the markets should follow in their correlations as we believe the USD (higher) and the SPX (lower) will continue to lead the markets.  For the last several months we have been suggesting that the markets could be making a major shift that could have a large impact for the medium and long-term.  We maintain that the past of couple years have been nothing but a bear market rally in the larger economy and specifically equities.

We want to highlight two charts, the DX and CL.  Both are sending strong signals of what to possibly expect in the near term.  The DX chart shows that price action has broken through the long-term trend line resistance and appears to be set up in a bullish formation for the longer term.  The trend line extended from 6.9.2010 to 10.4.2011.  The 86 price level is our target in the weeks ahead.  The CL chart displays that the long-term trend line resistance held price action from moving higher as it temporarily broke above, but since then has moved sharply lower.  The trend line extended all the way back from 2.12.2009.  Also notice that the recent spike high hit a resistance level at 103.45 before it reversed to the current lower levels.  Our near term downside target is $85.59 as price action continues to retreat from overbought levels.

For a full analysis, join our Premium service.  Details are here.  Sign up is here.

Newsletter Archives


 

DX Daily Candle chart

 


CL Daily Candle chart

 

 

SPX / ES  – Bearish

Our wave count suggests lower levels in the near term.

 

USD Index — Bullish

The USD continues to set up a bullish formation, and has broken above trend line resistance signaling the continuation of the move higher.

 

EURUSD — Bearish

The opposite of the US Dollar is the EURUSD.  The USD is the lesser of two evils here and should see significant strength and therefore, downside price action in the EURUSD in the months ahead.

 

CL Crude Oil — Bearish

The breakdown through the trend line support, as displayed above, should continue to put pressure on price action.

 

 Gold — Neutral/Bearish

Gold has seen a nice rebound in October, but November seen the return of the bears as price action has dropped lower, and is likely to continue.

 

Silver — Bearish

Similar to Gold, silver appears to be head lower with equities.

 

TNX – 10 yr Treasury Note — Bearish

We continue to get closer and closer to our long-term forecast predicted months ago.  Yields should continue to move lower.

Market Bias & Forecasts

Market 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months
SPX Bearish Bearish Bearish
ES Bearish Bearish Bearish
Gold Bearish Bearish Neutral
Silver Bearish Neutral Neutral
CL Bearish Bearish Bearish
DX Bullish Bullish Neutral
EURUSD Bearish Bearish Neutral
USDCAD Bullish Bullish Bullish
AUDUSD Bearish Bearish Bearish
GBP/USD Bearish Bearish Bearish
USD/CHF Bullish Bullish Bullish
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Market Overflow – Newsletter – 11.27.2011

November 27, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Market Overflow Newsletter

www.marketoverflow.com

Full Market Analysis

As of 11.27.2011

This is the first release of our newsletters.  It essentially is an update on the markets as a whole.  This more broad perspective on the core markets helps us to better anticipate the next direction as they relate to each other.

In summary, the markets have increased in volatility in recent weeks and equities have continued to increase momentum to the downside.  The larger bear trend has resumed lower as the longer term cycle has once again created plenty of selling pressure.  The SPX, EURUSD, Oil, and TNX have been moving lower together, which was anticipated.  The October bounce seems to over for equities and a much larger mover lower seems to be in the weeks and months ahead.  Our longer term bearish bias on the SPX and bullish USD stance continues to remain our conviction.  With that bias, the markets should follow in their correlations as we believe the USD and the SPX will continue to lead the markets.  For the last several months we have been suggesting that the market could be making a major shift that could have a large impact on the markets for the medium and long-term.  We maintain that the past couple years have been nothing but a bear market rally in the larger economy and specifically equities.

We want to highlight two charts, the DX and CL.  Both are sending strong signals of what to possibly expect in the near term.  The DX chart shows that price action has broken through the long-term trend line resistance and appears to be set up in a bullish formation for the longer term.  The trend line extended from 6.9.2010 to 10.4.2011.  The 86 price level is our target in the weeks ahead.  The CL chart displays that the long-term trend line resistance held price action from moving higher as it temporarily broke above, but since then has moved sharply lower.  The trend line extended all the way back from 2.12.2009.  Also notice that the recent spike high hit a resistance level at 103.45 before it reversed to the current lower levels.  Our near term downside target is $85.59 as price action continues to retreat from overbought levels.

For a full analysis, join our Premium service.  Details are here.  Sign up is here.

Newsletter Archives.


DX Daily Candle chart


CL Daily Candle chart

 

SPX / ES  – Bearish

Our wave count suggests lower levels in the near term.

 

USD Index — Bullish

The USD continues to set up a bullish formation, and has broken above trend line resistance signaling the continuation of the move higher.

 

EURUSD — Bearish

The opposite of the US Dollar is the EURUSD.  The USD is the lesser of two evils here and should see significant strength and therefore, downside price action in the EURUSD in the months ahead.

 

CL Crude Oil — Bearish

The breakdown through the trend line support, as displayed above, should continue to put pressure on price action.

 

 Gold — Neutral/Bearish

Gold has seen a nice rebound in October, but November seen the return of the bears as price action has dropped lower, and is likely to continue.

 

Silver — Bearish

Similar to Gold, silver appears to be head lower with equities.

 

TNX – 10 yr Treasury Note — Bearish

We continue to get closer and closer to our long-term forecast predicted months ago.  Yields should continue to move lower.

 


 

Market Bias & Forecasts

Market 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months
SPX Bearish Bearish Bearish
ES Bearish Bearish Bearish
Gold Bearish Bearish Neutral
Silver Bearish Neutral Neutral
CL Bearish Bearish Bearish
DX Bullish Bullish Neutral
EURUSD Bearish Bearish Neutral
USDCAD Bullish Bullish Bullish
AUDUSD Bearish Bearish Bearish
GBP/USD Bearish Bearish Bearish
USD/CHF Bullish Bullish Bullish
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Market Report – 11.23.2011

November 23, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Lots of charts (ES, SPX, EURSD, and AUDUSD) updated in the Premium content area for members access.  We will be mainly focused on our subscribers going forward, however, we will continue to post Market Reports with much less content now.

Here is a look at the USD Index.  Bullish developments are in full swing now.  Looking to higher levels in the short-term and longer terms.

DX 4Hour Candle chart


We have pointed out the bearish break for Crude oil, and it appears price action will continue to break down in the days ahead.  We are looking at an $85.59 price level for our initial target.

CL Daily Candle chart

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Market Report – 11.21.2011

November 21, 2011 By 2 Comments

As you may have noticed we have changed the format of our website to better accommodate our new features such as membership content and newsletters.  If your interested in the membership content please email me at marketoverflow@gmail.com.  Our membership content may go live as early as this evening, but more updates will be coming about that.  However, we will still post free content until the membership is completely live.  Once the membership content is live, we will only offer a limited amount of content for free.  We hope that you have enjoyed the analysis we have provided for the last 4 months, and have profited from it greatly.  Our fund continues to perform very well, as we  have taken trades that we have forecasted for that last several months.

Regarding the markets, I have had several emails asking about the price action unfolding since the Sunday session open.  The “risk off” sentiment should continue to increase in momentum as we have been forecasting for weeks.  The USD has strengthened and equities have weakened, which is what we suggested would happen for weeks now.  Our bias has not changed.

Now looking at the ES, the equity futures have moved sharply to the downside as expected indicating that the SPX will open sharply lower.  Support may come in at 1186 and 1178 for a minor retracement before the downside continues to about the 1144 area which is our initial target.

Try out our free quarterly Market Overflow Newsletter.  This is a new feature for Market Overflow that will include an intermarket analysis of equities, bonds, commodities, currencies, and the precious metals.

ES 4Hour Candle chart



Crude Oil has broken through our trend line support which we have been suggesting would be a trigger for “risk off” price action.  This breach will likely accelerate to the downside and cause the USD Index to strengthen further and the SPX to weaken further.  Longer term, crude oil is headed much lower.

CL Daily Candle chart


The USD Index continues to push higher.  We are looking towards the 80.63 level as our initial target.

DX 4Hour Candle chart

 

The EURUSD should break down much more in the days ahead.  Our initial target is 1.3021, which should be reached soon.

EURUSD 4Hour Candle chart

 

The AUDUSD continues its bearish price action as well.  Support will be difficult to come by in the days ahead.

AUDUSD 4Hour Candle chart

 

Comments are welcome on our analysis as we encourage an open dialogue.  We would be more than happy to answer any questions that you might have.

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