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USD Index

October 29, 2012 By Leave a Comment

The USD index is under close watch as of recent weeks again as price action could be attempting a jump higher.  It is quite possible to label a completed major wave 2 with minor waves (i)  higher completed as well as minor wave (ii) correction.  Minor wave (i) is considered an expanding leading diagonal with wave (ii) retracing to the 78.6% fib retracement level, which is not uncommon for waves of the second degree.  If our wave count is correct then we have wave-i and wave-ii completed with wave-iii currently underway and should continue to move higher to target the 81.43 level as an initial target.  A move below the 79.77 level would invalidate this wave count.

DX 1Hour

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DX

June 9, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Here is a look at 15 min chart of our current Premium content on the USD index.  In the short-term our bias is for the DX to continue lower toward a strong support zone of the 81.41-81.08 area.  To get a more in-depth analysis and a longer-term picture of our wave count join our Premium members content.  A 14-day free trial is currently available.

DX 15min

 

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DX

May 28, 2012 By Leave a Comment

The DX is likely to have a very big impact on the markets in the weeks ahead.  This wave count has become our primary count for several reasons over the past week.  Our longer-term wave count is telling us we are at a significant point time here.  Join our Premium members to learn why this has become our primary wave count and also see what markets are confirming this wave count.

We have identified a five wave move higher for wave (1) and should now expect a pullback to about the 81 level in the near-term.  From there we are looking for increased momentum to the upside for the USD in wave 3 fashion.

DX 1Hour

 

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DX

May 10, 2012 By Leave a Comment

The USD index is a very important indicator of where the markets are likely headed for the rest of 2012.  A bullish USD will likely correlate with weaker equity and commodity prices, and a bearish USD will likely result in the opposite scenario.  Price action is difficult to count as impulsive higher, but the important upward trend line has held around the 79.00 level.  There was a brief breakdown through the trend line support, but it only served as a fake-out for USD bears, as price action has reversed to higher levels.  It is quite possible that this indecisive price action could be as a result of being within a triangle.  If that is the case then we may have a bit higher to go for wave d and then another pullback for wave e and complete the triangle x.  From there we could be looking at USD strength begin in early June that could take the buck to the 86-87 area by the end of the year.  Perhaps we should expect equities to selloff in the weeks ahead.

DX Daily chart

 

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DX

March 4, 2012 By Leave a Comment

The USD index is facing some key resistance levels, which will likely signal whether there is more strength ahead in the short-term or the buck may be headed to much lower levels ahead.  Our bias remains bearish though, especially as price action is way overbought at the current levels.

DX 1Hour chart

 

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Market Report – 2.20.2012

February 20, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Due to the content in this Market Report, we could only make some of it available as free to non-Premium members.  Join us here for more information.

The S&P futures is retracing a bit as a result of overbought conditions.  Our expectations are for the uptrend to continue higher once this small correction is complete.  Join our premium members for more specific levels that we are targeting and more charts of our current wave count.

ES – 1Hour chart

 

The DX has likely made a significant reversal last week.  We have been forecasting a lower USD index for weeks and we continue to believe we are headed to much lower levels.

DX – 1Hour chart

 

More charts available for Premium Members below.

ES – 4Hour chart

DX – 4Hour chart

NZDUSD – 4Hour chart

USDSEK – 4Hour chart

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For more chart coverage and more in-depth research and analysis, join our premium members content.  Also receive more interaction with Market Overflow as we provide Elliott Wave analysis and technical research to help your trading/investing become more profitable.  If you have any questions contact Ben, Founder and Chief Analyst, at marketoverflow@gmail.com, or contact us here.  We do have a free 7-day Premium content trial to try out research and analysis service with trade recommendations.  If your are interested in the  **Free Premium Trial** contact us  here.

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DX

February 13, 2012 By Leave a Comment

The USD Index is suggesting that lower levels are ahead.  It is interesting to note that the wave (2) retracement was very weak and had trouble pushing higher at all, which likely means that there is some real underlying weakness here.

DX 1Hour chart

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Market Report – Weekend Edition – 2.5.2012

February 5, 2012 By Leave a Comment

The better than expected US NFP data that was released last Friday morning, and we receive a nice bullish move higher for the markets as we expected.  The path of least resistance has been higher and we have no reason to abandon that continued bias.  It does seem though that currency traders may cut back their expectations of a round 3 of a USD-weakening quantitative easing effort.  We are wondering if this will change the landscape for the USD against the EUR, perhaps in the short-term, however, USD shorts may experience a short squeeze.  Therefore, as we continue to stay out-of-the-way of a difficult EURUSD to trade, we must try to understand its impact on the markets.

Our initial target has been hit for the SPX at the 1344-1345 area.  Price action is in overbought territory on the 1hour chart, but we could see price action push higher in the short-term to our extended target of the 1356 price level.  It seems prudent to take partial profits at minimum with a potential wave 4 pullback that could unfold in the short-term.  Our bias remains bullish for the next several weeks.

SPX 1Hour chart

 

The USD index continues to appear bearish especially if price action can break through below the 78.75-79.15 area, which has produced a bit of congestion for the short-term.  Although the SPX/DX inverse correlation has been challenged a bit this year, the two have tightened up that relationship as of late.

DX 1Hour chart

 

Similar to the DX chart above, but inversely related, price action could breakout to the upside if this wave count is correct.  The 1.3144-1.3216 price area is the congestion zone for the short-term.  A break above could really get price action moving to the upside.  We continue to have a neutral conviction on this pair as there remains to be a lot of cross currents affecting price action.

EURUSD Daily chart

 

As of late, we have been tracking the EURGBP, and believe there may be a nice opportunity in the short-term for lower price levels ahead.

EURGBP 1Hour chart

 

Crude oil is critical for longer term SPX bulls.  If we have seen the completion of a wave 2, we should expect much higher price levels in the weeks ahead, which should support the SPX for a continued move higher.

CL 4Hour chart

 

Our forex darling, the AUDUSD, continues to move higher as we have forecasted weeks ago.  We continue to like the price action that we see here, and will likely continue to trade it in the days and weeks ahead.

AUDUSD 30min chart

 

Join our premium members as we continue to stick with what has been working to trade the EURNZD, AUDUSD, and EURGBP pairs, which have a more clear wave count providing us an edge on the markets.  Our current trade has been working very well and we are positioned nicely for further gains this week.

 

For more chart coverage and more in-depth research and analysis, join our premium members content.  Also receive more interaction with Market Overflow as we provide Elliott Wave analysis and technical research to help your trading become more profitable.  If you have any questions contact Ben, Founder and Chief Analyst, at marketoverflow@gmail.com, or contact us here.  Try our free 7-day Premium content trial to experience our research and analysis service with trade recommendations.  If you’re interested in the  **Free Premium Trial** contact us  here.

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Market Report – Update – 1.29.2012

January 29, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Another interesting week ahead of us after the US Fed decided to maintain its very easy monetary policy of low-interest rates and potentially more quantitative easing.  These actions are likely going to hurt the buck and support equities for the next several weeks and months ahead.  The USD index is likely going to tell the story for the markets as we expect weakness to return to being the theme.  As we look at the different markets in this report, it seems that another push in risk-on sentiment is likely to continue to unfold.

The DX seems to be in a wave (3) move lower which should continue to see strong selling pressure to keep the index heavy this week.  Many analysts are looking for a rebound in price action, but we simply do not see that anytime soon for any significant rally.

DX 1Hour Candle chart

 

The S&P 500 appears that it may have another small wave lower to find support at about 1307 for minor wave 4 in the near term, but our focus is for price action to continue higher this week.

SPX 1Hour Candle chart

 

Crude oil hasn’t done much in recent weeks and has pretty much gone sideways since mid-November.  We expect price action to break out to the upside soon with a shorter term target of $115, which should be boosted by a lower USD.

CL 4Hour Candle chart

 

Our favorite risk-on currency continues to be the AUDUSD, so if we are bullish on equities then we continue to like price action here to continue higher.  Our wave count confirms our bias.

AUDUSD 1Hour Candle chart

 

Another interesting currency play is the EURNZD.  Instead of trading the EURUSD, we like a short EURNZD position with our expectation that the Euro will continue to have its troubles, but it would be far better to be short the Euro against the stronger New Zealand Dollar, which is setting up for a big move lower.

EURNZD 1Hour Candle chart

 

For more chart coverage and more in-depth research and analysis, join our premium members content.  Also receive more interaction with Market Overflow as we provide Elliott Wave analysis and technical research to help your trading become more profitable.  If you have any questions contact Ben, Founder and Chief Analyst, at marketoverflow@gmail.com, or contact us here.  Try our free 7-day Premium content trial to experience our research and analysis service with trade recommendations.  If your are interested in the  **Free Premium Trial** contact us  here.

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Market Report – 12.21.2011

December 21, 2011 By Leave a Comment

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The low liquidity of pre-Holiday market conditions continue.  We expect large market swings for price action through the rest of the year as the increased volatility gathers up stop orders from weak day traders.  Caution is warranted and larger stop losses will be needed to trade effectively in these conditions.  Join us in the Premium members content to get our full research/analysis and trade recommendations.

The ES appears to have completed a three wave move lower for wave b and we are now headed higher for the likely the rest of the year.  Our initial target area is the 1303-1307 levels.  A closer look at the chart below shows a possible completed minor wave 1 with a pullback to 1236 and 1228 fib levels, which would be excellent long entry points.

ES Hourly Candle chart


The DX has made an impressive move higher, which created the recent downward pressure on equities.  We have been warning that a pull back for the DX was very near, and it appears that we are getting it now.  We will focus on the 78.90 level as the near term target for the retracement.  This move lower should help boost equity price action in the near term.

DX 4Hour Candle chart


 

The 10yr treasury yield is clearly bearish and likely headed lower to our 15 target level.  A retracement higher will likely find resistance at the former trend line support that comes in at about 19.80.

TNX 4Hour Candle chart


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